COVID-19 Modeling
Tools and Papers, including Preprints



TOOLS

COVID-19 Scenarios were developed at the University of Basel (Switzerland)in a Research Group of Richard Neher
COVID-19 Scenarios

GitHub repository with source Code for COVID-19 Outbreak Trajectories and Hospital Demand

Gabriel Goh created an Epidemic Calculator

Epidemic Calculator by Gabriel Goh

Exponential Fit Calculator

Exponential Fit Calculator

COMPILATIONS

Papers curated by Dr. Sanchin Shah (twitter: @sachinjshah) at UCSF. They are organized by
1) CORE clin epi studies
2) ID and immunology
3) Radiology
4) PPE and occ health
5) Peds
6) Niche studies
7) Ethics
8) Anesthesia-crit care

Papers curated by Dr. Shah

PUBLISHED PAPERS

Cheguang Shen et.al. "Treatment of 5 Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 With Convalexcent Plasma" JAMA


Treatment With COVID-19 With Convalescent Plasma

Chelsea Lutz et.al. "Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples" BioMed Central


Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health

CDC Matt Biggerstaff et.al. "Systematic Assessment of Multiple Routine and Near Real-Time Indicators to Classify the Severity of Influenza Seasons and Pandemics in the United States 2003-2004 Through 2015-2016" American Journal of Epidemiology


Severity of Influenza Season and Pandemics

Ezekiel J. Emanuel, et.al. "Fair Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in the Time of Covid-19" The New England Joural of Medicine


Fair Allocation of Scare Medical Resources

PREPRINTS

COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv



medRxiv and bioRxiv preprints

NEWSPAPER ARTICLES

"Crowd of people may be best predictors of COVID-19 cases" Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. March 14, 2020. Article discusses some of the work being done by Roni Rosenfeld, Logan Brooks and others at CMU's Delphi Research Group which inspired this effort.


Crowd of people may be the best

BLOGS/WEBSITES

CDC website describing how CDC classifies the severity of influenza seasons and pandemics
CDC website describing the U.S. Influenza Surveillance System CDC Epidemic Prediction Initiative

INFORMATION PAPERS FOR CONCEPTS ON THIS WEBSITE

Wisdom of Crowds Background
Explanation of Probability Distributions
Presentation to CUA BE 499
Poster for CSTE/CDC FluSight Seasonal Influenza Forecasting Workshop